Techno-Optimist #2

Can you feel the acceleration?

Apr 20, 2024

Welcome to the second edition of Techno-Optimist, your beacon for the latest news and insightful commentary across the fields of space, science, technology, medicine, energy, AI, and more. To the 120+ new subscribers who are excited about the future and weary of all the doomerism, welcome aboard!

Let me give you a quick tour of the newsletter format: First, a short introduction—perhaps sprinkled with housekeeping notes like this one, or a ‘high points’ preview of content ahead. After an inspiring quote, we launch into the longer form stories—just a couple paragraphs each most times—highlighting news you don’t want to miss, or topics that demand a deeper explanation to properly appreciate them. Next, shorter commentary, segmented by topic (space, AI, medicine, etc.) with bullet-point articles. And finally, a brief adiós, with an invitation to share and subscribe.

I’m always open to your feedback, so if there’s anything glaringly absent don’t hesitate to drop a comment or message.

Alright, let’s dive in, we’ve got a lot to cover.

“I mean, we’ve got to be excited about the future. We’ve got to do things that make us want to live. You know, it cannot always be about problems every day. I mean, do you want to wake up every morning and everything’s just a problem? What inspires you, and what makes you excited about the future? There’s got to be some things like that.”

—Elon Musk

Nitrogen fixing algae *Braarudosphaera bigelowii* (magnified 1,000x). Credit: Tyler Coale | Nature

Algae that can fix nitrogen. While the “textbooks say nitrogen fixation only occurs in bacteria and archaea,” it is now confirmed that an algae—which is a eukaryote, belonging to the group of organisms including plants and animals where cells have a membrane bound nucleus—is able to fix nitrogen. This newfound ability lies within a cellular structure known as the nitroplast organelle. An interesting twist is that the nitroplast’s origins appear to have been bacteria that forged a symbiotic pact with the algal cells, similar to the ancient alliance between mitochondria and their host cells.

Now, why does this matter? All plants need nitrogen to grow and thrive, and currently there are only three avenues to acquire it: most plants just absorb the nitrogen already present in the soil, gradually replenished over time by plant and animal detritus. A few like peas and beans have a symbiotic relationship with nitrogen fixing bacteria nestled in their roots, providing all the nitrogen they need. Most of our crops however can’t get enough nitrogen without our intervention. They have been designed by us to grow fast and pack their seeds, roots, or leaves—which we then eat—with nutrients. If we don’t want to quickly exhaust the soil, we have to add a lot of nitrogen fertilizer year after year. While creating artificial nitrogen fertilizer is a technological miracle that allows more people to be better fed on average than at any time in history, creating the precursors to nitrogen fertilizer it is an energy intensive process, making the end product expensive.

That’s where the algae’s nitrogen-fixing prowess comes in. Now that we have an example of nitrogen fixing in a eukaryotic cell, it opens the door to engineering this ability into our crops, vastly reducing the amount of expensive fertilizer we need to dump on them. Now that we know it’s possible, let’s get it done! (Nature)

SpaceX’s future Mars Base Alpha | @SpaceX

Update on Starship and a city on Mars. On April 6^th Elon Musk gave an update on SpaceX’s vision to make life multiplanetary, with its Starship as the vehicle for achieving their goal of a city on Mars. Some of the highlights: Starship is set to grow by about 10m in length, and will be capable of lifting 200 tons to orbit at a cost that could drop as low as $10-$15 per kilogram (launch cost of $2M to $3M). That’s actually cheaper than the original Falcon 1 rocket, which cost around $8M per launch and carried far less. If all goes well, the company intends to try and catch the Superheavy booster with Mechazilla before the end of this year—and build another three towers by the middle of next year to increase the tempo of launches.

To establish a (mostly) self-sustaining city on Mars, a few thousand Starships will need to be built annually in order to ferry a million people, and millions of tons of supplies to the red planet. A tall order to be sure, requiring a fairly continuous growth in mass to orbit of about 45% per year until 2040. But it’s roughly what SpaceX is achieving now with Falcon 9, so not impossible. Also, I think that while some of Elon’s timelines can be aspirational, it’s usually a good bet that he will succeed in the end. Once there, most Starships will stay on Mars, where they will be used for parts and building material. This is all being funded right now by Starlink, which currently has 2.7 million customers, so roughly $3B in annual revenue.

Don’t forget why Elon Musk and SpaceX are doing this. The goal is to preserve the light of consciousness, spread life, expand human civilization to multiplanetary status, and lay the groundwork for ultimately going interstellar. Ad astra! (@SpaceX) (Ars Technica)

Dragonfly rotorcraft on Titan | NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben

Dragonfly is a go! The Dragonfly rotorcraft mission to Titan, Saturn’s largest moon, has officially been confirmed, with a launch date of July 2028. This mission will send a nuclear-powered octocopter flying around Titan, offering never before seen views of its icy mountains, hydrocarbon sand dunes, and methane lakes. Despite its extreme cold (-290 degrees Fahrenheit or -179 degrees Celsius), Titan is interesting because it mirrors Earth where temperatures and pressure are around the triple point for water (it coexists in solid, liquid, and gaseous form)—except on Titan it’s hydrocarbons instead of water. An unlikely but intriguing possibility is the potential that microbial life not quite as we know it might exist there. Carbon based like us, but possibly using a different solvent, such as ethane. (@SciGuySpace) (NASA)

“Mini organs” take a big step forward. Two recent breakthroughs could bring hope to millions with diseased and failing organs. In the first, researchers in Singapore grew kidney organoids (mini kidneys) from donated skin cells of a patient with polycystic kidney disease (where the kidneys grow cysts, eventually causing kidney failure), and implanted them into mice for study. They found “evidence that boosting autophagy (the body’s cellular recycling system) could reduce the severity of cysts in the mini kidney.” Armed with this new information, they looked for existing drugs that might increase this effect. Minoxidil, commonly used to treat high blood pressure and hair loss, “effectively reduced cyst formation in the novel mouse model.” I am intrigued, let’s move this forward please!

The second story is from biotech company LyGenesis, which is starting a human trial up for next year where the goal is growing mini livers inside the abdominal lymph nodes of patients with end-stage liver disease. In mice and pigs, the mini organs grew and became functional after about two months — the hope of course is that it works just as well in humans. If it does, the door opens to treatment options other than transplant. The technique could be expanded to other diseases as well, with diabetic mice seeing blood sugar levels restored to normal after some of their lymph nodes were seeded with pancreatic cellular clusters. (SciTechDaily) (Singularity Hub)

Space

Q1 2024 global launch attempts | Payload

During the first quarter of 2024, 63 launch attempts took place globally. SpaceX led the pack with 32 launches, surpassing the combined total of all other players. China accounted for approximately a quarter of the global launches at 14, while the remaining launches were other nations or private companies. (Payload)
Last time, I shared that Voyager 1, our most distant robotic explorer, has been transmitting a nonsensical data stream. [Sidebar: It’s incredible to consider that Voyager 1 is now over 24 billion kilometers away, a distance so vast that light takes 22.5 hours to make a one-way trip!]. The corruption of the flight data subsystems, which prepare data for transmission to Earth, appears to be the issue. This could be due to damage from an energetic particle strike or simply wear and tear after 46 years in space’s harsh environment. The engineers are confident that they can devise a workaround, even if it takes a few months. (Live Science)
Take a look at these two companies developing space-based solar power. Space Solar is a British company that recently achieved a breakthrough in wireless energy transmission, crucial for transmitting power from an orbiting solar array to ground-based receiving stations. The founders of Virtus Solis have also shared their vision, anticipating that the cost of generating their space-based solar power will be around 3-4 cents per kilowatt-hour, with low transmission costs. They believe that ultimately, the generation costs could fall well below a cent per kilowatt-hour. (Interesting Engineering) (Interesting Engineering)
NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover has discovered a perfect rock for returning to Earth. “To put it simply, this is the kind of rock we had hoped to find when we decided to investigate Jezero Crater,” a scientist from the Perseverance project explained. The majority of the minerals were formed in water (about 75% carbonates), maybe as part of an ancient Martian shoreline environment. Researchers are hoping that when the rock gets back to labs on Earth, it could reveal evidence of past microbial life, if any was present back when Mars had more Earth-like conditions. (SciTechDaily)

Moon rovers selected for development by NASA. Left to right: Lunar Outpost moon rover, Intuitive Machines Racer rover, and Astrolab FLEX moon rover

Capitalizing on the success of procuring launch services from the private sector, NASA has selected three companies, Lunar Outpost, Intuitive Machines, and Astrolab, to compete in the development of lunar rovers. It’s likely that only one rover design will ultimately used, with astronauts starting to drive it around the Moon’s south polar region by 2030.
Speaking of rovers, NASA and JAXA (the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) have just signed a deal where Japan will design and operate a pressurized lunar rover for the two nations to use in joint Moon exploration. In return, “a shared goal for a Japanese national to be the first non-American astronaut to land on the Moon on a future Artemis mission, assuming important benchmarks are achieved.” (Space.com) (NASA)
Startup company Max Space is planning large, inflatable habitats for use in Earth orbit, the Moon, and on Mars. "The problem with space today is, there isn't enough habitable space in space,” said co-founder Aaron Kemmer. The company intends to send up a test module in 2026 that will have a pressurized volume of about 20 cubic meters, and then quickly scale that up to a 100 cubic meter module in 2027, and 1,000 cubic meters by 2030. For comparison, the International Space Station only has about 388 cubic metes of habitable volume. (@SPACEdotcom)
American company Sierra Space just unveiled their strategy to deliver vital supplies anywhere on Earth within 90 minutes via rockets. This innovation holds promise for everything from aiding soldiers in war zones to responding to natural disasters that disrupt infrastructure. Unlike existing concepts from companies like SpaceX or Rocket Lab, Sierra Space’s approach eliminates the need for a landing pad. Instead, the supplies are dropped from space and guided to their destination using a parachute and rudder combination, landing safely and precisely where needed. (Space.com)

AI, Energy, Engineering, & Physics

File this under cool tech for use in home and industry. A new 3D printer “can automatically determine the printing parameters of an unknown material,” making it a lot easier to deal with recycled materials which sometimes have inconsistent properties. (Science Daily)
Last time we talked about how fast AI is coming. Elon Musk agrees, saying recently that "My guess is we'll have AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.” If that does happen, a lot of things are going to change in a hurry. It’ll be a strange, and hopefully better, new world. (Ars Technica)
Three fusion energy companies recently had successful raises. Helicity Space, which is working on fusion for spacecraft propulsion, announced an investment from Lockheed Martin in addition to a recent $5M round. Proxima Fusion—working on a stellarator approach to mastering the forces that power the stars—raised $21M. Last but not least, Kyoto Fusioneering raised $9.9M from three new investors. They aren’t building a fusion power plant themselves, but instead aim to support the industry by creating “key fusion plant components.” It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of fusion (I created Fusion is the Future on X), so LFG! (@HelicitySpace) (@TechCrunch) (Kyoto Fusioneering)
A new app has launched that lets you create music from text-prompting. Udio lets you type in something like “wheels on the bus go round and round, EDM banger” where the result is an altered rap version of the familiar ditty. Or “irish folk tune, violin, instrumental,” and there it is for your listening pleasure. You can create any genera of music, with vocals in different languages, and turn your clips into whole songs. Sounds fun for all you sound artists out there. Have at it! (@udiomusic)

Medicine

Odd as it may sound, bacteria are a common occupant of tumors. A detailed catalogue of bacteria living within cancer metastases has now been published, and it showed that the presence of certain bacteria was “linked to a worse response to immunotherapy.” This research will help us understand how bacteria can either help or hurt cancer treatment. A thought: perhaps the unhelpful varieties could be targeted by bacteriophages, making the cancer more vulnerable? (Science Daily)
We need new antibiotics, and an international collaboration just discovered an entirely new class of them, targeting gram-negative bacteria such as E. coli, which are often resistant to most antibiotics. The protein target the antibiotics go after hasn’t yet been exploited, meaning “there is no pre-existing resistance to this class of compounds.” Testing in mice has already been done, successfully curing bloodstream infection from multidrug resistant bacteria. (Future Timeline)
For some time a link between gut health and Parkinson’s disease has been suspected. Evidence of that connection may have just been strengthened by the discovery that fecal transplants—used to transfer healthy gut microbiota from one person to another—“let to mild but significant improvement in motoric symptoms…over the course of a year” in Parkinson’s patients. (Science Alert)
In the first edition of Techno-Optimist, I told you about Rick Slayman a patient with kidney failure who received a genetically modified pig kidney. I’m happy to report that he is doing well and been discharged from hospital to continue recovery at home. Upon being released, Rick said that, "This moment — leaving the hospital today with one of the cleanest bills of health I've had in a long time — is one I wished would come for many years. Now, it's a reality and one of the happiest moments of my life.” (Sky News)
Kombucha, a popular beverage in some circles, is brimming with helpful bacteria. It seems that when you drink kombucha, those microbes colonize your gut and can alter fat metabolism —reducing body fat in an effect similar to fasting. The researchers “Were surprised to find that animals consuming a diet consisting of the probiotic microbes found in kombucha tea displayed reduced fat accumulation, lower triglyceride levels…” Honestly, that sounds pretty good to me. (New Atlas) (Science Alert)
There’s more news about gut bacteria and cholesterol, with a study uncovering gut microbiota that metabolize cholesterol, reducing it in people with high numbers of bacteria in the Oscillibacter genus, as well as another species called Eubacterium coprostanoligenes. Definitely potential for a probiotic. Seriously, someone should go ahead and start a company. (SciTechDaily)

Biotech & Agriculture

Super banana (orange tint) versus regular banana | @simonmaechling

A new ‘Super Banana’ has been created with a high amount of vitamin A (similar to Golden Rice), intended to remedy deficiency of that vitamin in Africa and elsewhere. We hope it gets approved for consumption soon — if it becomes widespread it could save hundreds of thousands of children from going blind or dying each year due to vitamin A deficiency. (@simonmaechling) (The Cooldown)

Weird & Wonderful

Something most of you probably don’t know (I certainly didn’t) is that birds sing silently in their sleep. By tracking muscle contractions of a great kiskadee — a common bird in Central and South America — while it slept, researchers were able to reproduce what the bird was singing as it dreamt, essentially deciphering its dreams. Turns out, the bird was making a call in its dream that it sings during fights over territory with other great kiskadees. (New Atlas)

configuration of the sextuple star system TYC 7037-89-1. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center | NASA Exoplanets

NASA’s TESS satellite has found a six star system where all six are involved in eclipsing each other from our point of view — a first. It caught my eye because I think it’s incredible that such a star system exists. We live in an amazing universe. It also reminded me of Isaac Asimov’s excellent book Nightfall. If you haven’t already, go read it. (@NASAExoplanets) (NASA)

Photos & Videos

Now that the solar eclipse has come and gone, let me highlight a few photographs I found particularly spectacular.

Prominence visible during the eclipse | @AJamesMcCarthy

Beginning through the end of totality, Baily's beads visible | Image Credit & Copyright: Daniel Korona | @apod

Recommendations & Reviews

This time I’d like to direct your attention to a Starts With A Bang article titled Why humanity must invest in exploring the Universe. It tackles the most common question often asked about space exploration — whether purely scientific, or manned spaceflight. The question usually goes something like this: why bother exploring space when there’s so many problems down on Earth that we should put time and money into? Read the whole article if you can, it’s quite good. But if not, read this segment below that I’ve pulled out of it; a story that I believe puts the right perspective on things.

One story has always stuck with me from the Apollo-era, and it comes courtesy of Ernst Stuhlinger, who was NASA’s Associate Director of Science when humans were taking their first steps on the lunar surface. He received a letter from a concerned nun who was working in humanitarian relief, Sister Mary Jucunda, who was outraged that Stuhlinger would suggest spending so much money on an endeavor to send humans to Mars. With all the suffering in the world, she wondered, why invest in this type of science?
Stuhlinger wrote back, telling a story from his home country (Germany) from hundreds of years prior. He talked about life in feudal Germany, and in particular in a region that was governed by a benevolent but eccentric Count. The Count kept his people relatively well-fed and safe from invaders, but was also a scientifically curious individual.
When he was shown that one of his subjects had been tinkering with optical lenses in series to greatly magnify what the unaided human eye could see, he became delighted. For the first time, humans were discovering what we now know as the microscopic world: the world of germs, cells, and other entities that were simply too small to be visible to the unaided eye. The Count gave this man a place in his court, and continued to employ and encourage him in his investigatory endeavors.
Then, the fortune of the Count’s region changed. A plague hit, and many people were suffering. There was not enough food, and disease began to run rampant as well. The Count pivoted in order to devote a large share of his resources toward feeding and treating his people, but despite public calls that he quit wasting resources on employing the eccentric lens-maker, the Count refused.
“I give you as much as I can afford,” the Count said to the people, “but I will also support this man and his work, because I know that someday something will come out of it!”
Indeed, something did come out of it, although it wouldn’t be within the Count’s or the lens-maker’s lifetime: the microscope. Arguably the greatest tool we’ve ever developed in the history of biology and medicine came about because we were willing to invest in the exploration of the unknown. The benefits to future generations were far, far greater because a small amount of resources were invested not into dealing with an immediate crisis, but rather for the long-term benefit of all of humanity.

(Big Think)

That’s it for now, I’ll be back with more Techno-Optimist on May 4^th, where I will try my level best to work in some Star Wars references. Thank you for reading — and until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon.

-Owen

J.K. Lund

Good article Owen. The thing about Starship, also a frequent topic over at Risk & Progress, is that even if the lofty goals are missed by an order of magnitude, it will still completely upend space travel and revolutionize access.

That is insane ambition and we are lucky to live in a time where we may be able to see humans take their first steps toward becoming a multiplanetary species.

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